Buying into a new phone OS is risky for both developers and consumers. Consumers need something useable, stable and enjoyable with enough developers to give a decent choice of apps. Developers need a manageable and profitable platform with a large number of consumers. Both need something that will last and be supported for a decent amount of time. As both a developer and a consumer I spend months researching markets before investing my time in a new platform. Android and iOS are currently the big dogs, the have good support and are widely popular, no-brainer choices. Even more so a no brainer since I’m currently developing for Android and often work with iOS projects. Strangely though on renewing my 2 year contract I found myself getting neither of these, instead I got a Samsung Ominia 7 running Windows Phone 7 (WP7). Not a logical choice for someone whose currently stuck testing their apps on an Android tablet and would have to borrow their girlfriend’s iPhone to test iOS apps. I’m not a person who takes uncalculated risks (when sober), there is method to the madness.
Things don’t seem brilliant for WP7 at the moment. The OS was released about 8 months ago and it’s not had massive sales, with some estimating only 1.6 million since release. Microsoft is quite tight lipped about actual figures, which suggests they’re bad. There’s not much public awareness of WP7, in the UK at least, phone shops aren’t stocking many handsets and what they have isn’t promoted in store. Microsoft have been advertising, but the push seems to have gone quiet, most people probably don’t even realize WP7 exists. At the end of the day though, it’s not all doom and gloom for the new kid on the block. Android suffered the same problems at first, slow sales and low awareness, Android is only recently becomming popular and known in the UK. Android and iOS devices certainly dominate the market with Blackberry’s RIM and Nokia’s Symbian struggling and losing market share. That doesn’t mean that there’s no room for another OS. If you’ve ever been looking for a new cell phone you’ll have noticed how confusing and complex picking an Android devices is, there’s just too many, but if you want an iPhone you’ve got to pay a premium and have no choice. All these hardware and software versions of Android can make developing for them complicated. Android has little monitoring of what is published in it’s app store, with a confusing promoted apps policy and many free apps. This leads to Android users not tending to buy paid apps. The iOS AppStore has high sales figures, but is extremely overcrowded and can be hard for new developers to make a break in the midst of all the big companies. The market definitely has a gap for a unified platform that offers both stability and variety for consumers, whilst having a profitable app portal for developers. WP7 could offer a good answer to this. The marketplace already has a decent number of apps, enough for most people, yet few enough to leave lots of room for developers to add more. Handset specs must follow Microsoft’s designs and updates are shipped to all win 7 devices (so far), this avoids for the most part the mass fragmentation Android suffers from.
WP7 is receiving good reviews and feedback, personally I love it. It’s a very sellable and useable product, apart from a few nuances, which will hopefully be fixed in future updates. The WP7 interface is fast, intuitive and great to use, live tiles look great. WP7 feels like a unified product, rather than other systems which tend to feel like a collection of apps. The social features and gaming integration are excellent and there’s built in office and other tools for business use. The next big WP7 update (Mango) will add over 500 new features. I keep my reservations on the new update due to the fact there are a few WTF “features” with the OS that make you wonder what the designers were smoking. For example you’re not able to control ring/media/headphone volume independently. As of today (21/06/11) there’s been no mention whether the volume is fixed in any reviews of the Mango beta. Mango does, however, introduce many brilliant new features for users and APIs for developers. The next couple of years software wise look good at least, that’s as long as Microsoft keep up support. The best thing about WP7 is that Microsoft isn’t making the hardware, just the software, which is what it does best!
So what? WP7 is a good OS and fits a gap in the market, but it isn’t selling well yet and as soon as it fails won’t Microsoft just ditch it for something that will make them more money? Well no, that isn’t quite the case. Have you ever wondered why Sony initially sold PS3’s at a massive loss or why Google seemingly gives away all it’s products for free and is so keen on developing Android? The key here is holding the key to a communication gateway. Sony may have lost on PS3 hardware, but it made Blu-Ray win the format wars and gave them avenue to make profit from software sales and their Playstation marketplaces. Google sells advertising space, it controls the advertising space within Android apps and has access to more people’s information than ever. Windows Phone 7 is more than just about money selling the OS and app sales. WP7 gets people to use Microsoft services such as Zune, Bing, Xbox Live and Windows Live, some of which are in dire need of a popularity boost, all already have heavy investment. Combine this with the recent announcements that Nokia are joining forces with Microsoft and that gives two companies with massive vested interests in the product, both have brand names needing a boost.
Both Nokia and Microsoft are known for generally running decent marketing campaigns (though there are a few that miss the mark). There are massive vested interests in WP7 combined with companies that know their marketing. There’s no doubt in my mind that once Mango is released and the first Nokia WP7 handsets come out there will be huge marketing pushes and WP7 sales will kick off. I highly doubt that either company will give up on the project for a couple of years. Microsoft will use pull strings to keep WP7 going even if Nokia drop out, it wouldn’t surprise me if Microsoft subsidised manufactures to get the handsets out cheaply if they had to. Of course dealing with Nokia and giving them special privileges could backfire for the platform, causing fragmentation with special “Nokia only builds” or putting other handset manufacturers off creating WP7 handsets as Nokia ones will be better, but all that remains to be seen.
Overall I would say that I’m in virtually no doubt that WP7 will succeed. It’s a great product and it is appealing for both general consumers and developers alike. Now might be a good time to invest in WP7 prices seem to have during this quiet interlude after initial release, but before Nokia and Mango. The app marketplace is very open for new developers and people who own the device will be buying apps. I’m not saying it will overtake Android or iPhone, but it should be up there if all goes well. There is definitely a spot for WP7 in the smartphone market, somewhere between the overwhelming chaos of Android (if you’ve looked for a new mobile recently you’ll know how overbearing the options can be) and the lack of choice plus high cost of Apple devices. There is a risk that it won’t take off, but I don’t believe it is much of a risk at all. For consumers this isn’t much of an issue as WP7 will remain supported and works well, for developers, you can always publish to Xbox live or port your app to another device, you’ll probably still have as much chance of selling your app as you would on Android anyway. Personally I’m planning on having WP7 as the second platform I focus on after Android. On WP7 it will be far easier to be seen by consumers and the XNA toolkit is great to use (I might also get some freebies off Microsoft as they do their developer buttering up :D )!
